Which NHL playoff teams are under the most pressure to win the Cup? Ranking all 16 (2024)

Welcome to the annual pressure rankings, where most years we run through all 16 playoff teams to figure out which one is under the most pressure to win it all.

I say “most years,” because last year we broke from tradition. In those 2023 rankings, we only bothered to do 15 teams, because one team was so clearly ahead of everyone else that we didn’t even need to bother. That team was the Maple Leafs, and we just left them off the list entirely, if only so everyone else would have a chance and we didn’t have to build up to an obvious reveal with zero suspense.

Should we do that again this year? I’m not sure. On the one hand, that Leafs team did finally win a round, snapping a streak of misery that had come to define the era. The positive vibes didn’t last long, but beating the Lightning did feel like a quick flip of the pressure relief valve in Toronto, one that kept the whole thing from blowing up. On the other hand, it’s still Toronto, and with a new boss in town who might not be as patient as the previous regime, you could argue the Leafs are under just as much pressure this year as last, and maybe more.

I’m not sure, so I’m making the call: The Leafs are back on the list. We’ll find out where.

A reminder of the criteria:

Expectations factor: You can’t be under all that much pressure if everyone’s already written you off.

Drought factor: The longer the fan base has been waiting, the less leeway you’re going to get.

Ticking clock factor: Is the window closing? We’re looking at a variety of factors here, including age, cap crunch, pending free agents and even the potential of people losing their jobs.

Special circ*mstances: Up to three bonus points for anything not captured above.

We’ll count down all 16 teams from least to most pressure, starting with a relatively easy call for the 16-spot.

16. Washington Capitals

Expectations factor: 1/10. Absolutely nobody thought they were good enough to make the playoffs. I don’t mean in the preseason, I mean like a week ago.

Drought factor: 3/10. They’ve only won one Cup in 50 years, but it came in 2018, and a lot of those players are still on the team.

Ticking clock factor: 8/10. There’s a non-zero chance that these could be the last playoff games of Alexander Ovechkin’s career.

Special circ*mstances: +1. Because I was the only member of The Athletic’s staff who picked Washington to beat the Rangers, meaning I get to be insufferable about it for years if they pull it off.

Pressure score: 13/30. This is a low score, but nowhere near last year’s Kraken. It will be a theme this year, as the pressure feels high across the league.

15. Nashville Predators

Expectations factor: 3/10. They’re a wild card and an underdog, although more than a few experts are making them a trendy upset pick against a Vancouver team that still has its doubters.

Drought factor: 6/10. This is their 25th season and they’re still chasing the franchise’s first Stanley Cup, although they’ve at least been the most successful of the late-90s expansion cohort.

Ticking clock factor: 3/10. They’re not exactly a young team, but with a rookie GM and a first-year coach, this feels more like the start of something than the end.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For the whole U2 concert thing, which has the potential to be a legendary franchise turning point.

Pressure score: 14/30. The closest they ever came to a Cup was in 2017 when they entered the playoffs as the eight-seed in the West, so there’s a little bit of wild-card magic in their DNA.

14. Los Angeles Kings

Expectations factor: 3/10. They got the dreaded zero percent in our writer’s poll, and while that’s a little harsh, it’s fair to say they’re underdogs against Edmonton. And if they pull off the upset, the rest of the path out of the West isn’t exactly easy.

Drought factor: 4/10. We’re now at a decade since their last Cup win, which isn’t long enough to be a drought. But it’s also a decade since their last playoff-round win, which kind of is.

Ticking clock factor: 6/10. The young core will be here for years to come, but the finish line for the Anže Kopitar/Drew Doughty era is at least in view, even if it’s not necessarily imminent.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For the fact they’re playing the Oilers yet again, and losing to the same team in three straight opening rounds would trigger some real “We’re just not good enough to get out of this division” energy.

Pressure score: 15/30. What a weird season. From being near the top of the standings in the first half to a coaching change in the second, all to wind up with the same matchup they always get.

13. Colorado Avalanche

Expectations factor: 7/10. This probably would have been at least a point higher if we’d done this even a few weeks ago, before a shaky finish led to a tough start on the road.

Drought factor: 2/10. They won in 2022, although that’s their only championship since Ray Bourque’s Cup in 2001 and their only trip out of the second round in the cap era.

Ticking clock factor: 3/10. The key names are all locked up for the long term, and most are young enough that there should still be plenty of swings here.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For being the dreaded “good team that nobody trusts because the goaltending is slumping” team, which can often become a self-fulfilling prophecy. And another +1 for last year’s loss to an expansion team that maybe isn’t even all that good. Stuff happens in the playoffs, but that still stings.

Pressure score: 15/30. A struggling Alexandar Georgiev vs. this year’s Vezina winner, and it will still come down to whoever gets hot for a week.

12. Vegas Golden Knights

Expectations factor: 7/10. About as high as they could possibly be for a wild-card team.

Drought factor: 0/10. They won the Cup last year, and have never had a truly bad season. If I could push this into negative territory, I would.

Ticking clock factor: 7/10. Because it’s never lower than this in Vegas, where they apparently missed the memo about the NHL’s culture of timid, conservative roster building. If they lose, they’ll make big changes. If they win … well, they probably still will. No team is more ruthless, and it’s working.

Special circ*mstances: +3. For one of the most aggressive trade deadlines we’ve ever seen, one that saw the Golden Knights land the biggest name on the market, plus an even bigger one we didn’t even know was available.

Pressure score: 17/30. But no, your favorite team’s GM was totally right to play it safe. You have to stay patient and look out for that team chemistry, you know.

11. Tampa Bay Lightning

Expectations factor: 5/10. They’re still the Lightning. But they’re also a wild-card team in a very tough division.

Drought factor: 1/10. There are Lightning fans who’ve never seen this team win a playoff series in their lifetime, although none of them are old enough to talk about it.

Ticking clock factor: 10/10. They’re an aging team with a tough cap situation and a ton of red arrows, and I’m nudging them up another point or two because we still don’t know what the future holds for Steven Stamkos.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For Nikita Kucherov’s all-timer of a season, which is the sort of thing you hate to waste.

Pressure score: 18/30. It feels impossible to imagine Stamkos anywhere but Tampa, but it really sounds like this could be it.

10. New York Islanders

Expectations factor: 3/10. The other team to survive the Eastern turtle derby (that turned into a really fun sprint at the very end), they’re huge underdogs to the Hurricanes. But with excellent goaltending and a veteran roster, they’re certainly not in the “just happy to be there” territory.

Drought factor: 9/10. Forty years ago this spring, someone defeated the Islanders dynasty in a playoff series for the first time in 20 tries, with the Oilers beating them in the Final. It’s been almost all downhill ever since.

Ticking clock factor: 7/10. You never know with Lou Lamoriello, and the roster is up there, although at least this year the coach is safe.

Special circ*mstances: +1. Because come to think of it, it’s still Lou, and if he fired Patrick Roy three games into the series and took over himself it would only be mildly surprising.

Pressure score: 20/30. Only six teams scored 20 points or more in last year’s ranking. Pressure inflation is completely out of control.

9. Carolina Hurricanes

Expectations factor: 9/10. Even as a two-seed in the Metro, they’re one of the favorites.

Drought factor: 5/10. That 2006 win isn’t all that long ago, but it’s getting up there. And while it’s not necessarily a drought, there’s also that weird 12-game losing streak in the conference finals.

Ticking clock factor: 5/10. This could be it for Brett Pesce, and Jake Guentzel looks like he’ll be a rental. But most of the core is locked in, including Sebastian Aho with his new extension.

Special circ*mstances: +1. For Rod Brind’Amour needing an extension. Nobody thinks he’s going anywhere, but it did get a little weird last time, so keep it in mind.

Pressure score: 20/30. It feels like they’ve been the trendy pick for five years running now, so at some point, you’d think they have to at least make a Final.

8. Vancouver Canucks

Expectations factor: 7/10. This is a harder one to answer than it probably should be. They’re a division winner with home ice through at least two rounds, and yet we’ve spent the whole season debating whether they were actual contenders or just a good-ish team on a percentage-based bender. We’re still not completely sure, although the first-round matchup with the Predators is very winnable.

Drought factor: 9/10. No Cups in 54 years, despite three trips to the Final. And their only playoff wins since 2011 came in the weird bubble year.

Ticking clock factor: 3/10. Pretty low now that Elias Pettersson has been extended, although they do have two pricey rentals in Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov who could leave as UFAs this summer.

Special circ*mstances: +1. Because I already spoiled that they’re beating the Rangers in the Final.

Pressure score: 20/30. Some years, everything just clicks. You don’t have to apologize for those seasons, but you certainly don’t want to waste them.

7. Boston Bruins

Expectations factor: 7/10. Lower than last year, that’s for sure. The path out of the Atlantic is very tough, and it’s going to be pretty close to coin flips in each round they get to. But given the season they just had and the talent on the roster, you figure they should at least win a round or two.

Drought factor: 7/10. One Cup to show for over 50 years, although it was recent enough that most of their fans got to experience it.

Ticking clock factor: 5/10. Again, lower than last year, when there was a real “last dance” vibe. But this is probably it for the goaltending duo, and Don Sweeney has been around long enough that another first-round exit might warm his seat.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For last year’s shocking first-round collapse, which hangs over everything. They did a remarkably impressive job of putting together a strong season in the aftermath, especially without Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, but it won’t matter much if they make another early exit.

Pressure score: 21/30. Also, they’re playing the Leafs, arguably their top rival at this point.

6. Dallas Stars

Expectations factor: 9/10. They’re a lot of people’s Cup picks, including mine.

Drought factor: 7/10. They’ve only had one Cup in franchise history, which technically dates all the way back to 1967. And that one came in the previous century.

Ticking clock factor: 6/10. This is a tough one. On one hand, I’m not sure any of this year’s top contenders have a better young core. On the other, they’ve got an absolute army of OGWACs, which we’ll get to later this week.

Special circ*mstances: +1. For having the cleanest injury list of any playoff team. That can change quickly, but at least for now, things are breaking right.

Pressure score: 23/30. Hey, enough time has passed that we can all admit Jake Oettinger wasn’t really trying on that stick save and just got lucky, right?

5. Florida Panthers

Expectations factor: 9/10. There was a point during the season when they felt like the favorites. They took a step back down the stretch, but it was a small one.

Drought factor: 8/10. They’ve never won a Cup, and have only won so much as a round in three of their 30 seasons.

Ticking clock factor: 5/10. They’re young and reasonably well set up for the future, although the Sam Reinhart situation has to be figured out.

Special circ*mstances: +2. Because they’re facing the Lightning, the more successful big brother they’ve never been able to beat when it matters. Coming in as heavy favorites, a first-round loss here would be devastating.

Pressure score: 24/30. There’s still time to decide to hate them, by the way.

4. New York Rangers

Expectations factor: 9/10. They’re the Presidents’ Trophy winners and have a cupcake of a first-round matchup that only utter morons think they might lose.

Drought factor: 9/10. Their drought-ending Cup win is now a drought of its own. One championship in 84 years … and counting.

Ticking clock factor: 5/10. They’re older than you think and the cap is tight, but there’s nothing especially glaring here.

Special circ*mstances: +1. For the distinct aura of “We’re not getting enough credit” that’s floated around this team all season long.

Pressure score: 24/30. Prove us wrong, kids. Prove us wrong.

3. Winnipeg Jets

Expectations factor: 7/10. They’ve had a very good season, and their reward is playing the Avalanche, followed by either the Stars or the Knights. That tough path has left the consensus on the Jets being a second-tier contender, if that.

Drought factor: 9/10. Jets fans in Winnipeg have seen two NHL versions of this team dating back to 1979, with zero championships or even trips to the Final.

Ticking clock factor: 6/10. This score was higher last year when it felt like Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele were on the way out. But there’s not a lot of youth on this team, with plenty of key pieces over 30, and they’ve got two deadline rentals in Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli.

Special circ*mstances: +3. For the ongoing questions about attendance, which could even put the team’s long-term future in jeopardy. It’s not being dramatic to say a Cup run could save the franchise, while an early exit would feel like a massive missed opportunity.

Pressure score: 25/30. They’ve got the best goalie in the league this year, and it really feels like this could be their moment. But that path out of the division … yikes.

2. Toronto Maple Leafs

Expectations factor: 7/10. They had a good season but not a great one, and are facing a Boston team that’s owned them lately.

Drought factor: 10/10. Or so I’ve been told.

Ticking clock factor: 7/10. Another first-round loss would almost certainly mean the end of Sheldon Keefe, and they’ve got the usual collection of one-year contracts who’ll depart in the summer. But with Auston Matthews and William Nylander signing huge extensions in the last year, the chances of a full-fledged detonation of the core seem lower than last year.

Special circ*mstances: +3. For Keith Pelley, the new CEO of MLSE who, according to reports, may not have much patience with this team’s constant early exits. That could mean Brendan Shanahan’s job is on the line. More importantly, for Leafs fans, it could mean the days of ownership not meddling in hockey operations come to an end.

Pressure score: 27/30. As expected, a very high score from the perpetually pressured Leafs. But somewhat surprisingly, that still leaves them second best. Hey, just like they were on Saturday night in Boston.

1. Edmonton Oilers

Expectations factor: 9/10. They went into the season as one of the favorites and quickly regained that status after an early slump. Now they’re facing a first-round matchup against a team they’ve already beaten in each of the last two years. With either Vancouver or Nashville waiting in Round 2, the path to the Cup is crystal clear.

Drought factor: 9/10. They haven’t won a Cup since 1990, a period that included the dismantling of a dynasty, an agonizingly close Cinderella run, and the Decade of Darkness.

Ticking clock factor: 8/10. Leon Draisaitl needs an extension this summer. Connor McDavid is up next year. Star players almost always end up re-signing, so let’s not get crazy. But Daniel’s not wrong that there’s at least a bit of a possible “last stand” vibe in Edmonton this time around.

Special circ*mstances: +2. For the goaltending, a position that seemed like a weakness for a while now but that Ken Holland decided to stand pat on. It’s been OK this year, but if it’s the reason they lose an early series, it could be the final mistake of Holland’s run in Edmonton.

Pressure score: 28/30. This is Year 9 of McDavid’s spectacular career. It has to happen sometime. If it ever will.

(Top photos of Adam Lowry, Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews: Ashley Potts / NHLI via Getty Images, Melissa Tamez / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Mike Carlson / Getty Images)