If the NHL playoffs started today: The Penguins are in, Maple Leafs-Panthers rematch (2024)

There’s been plenty of relevant NHL action over the last four days, but only one change in the projected Stanley Cup playoff matchups. That should serve as a lesson: Three-point games ruin everything.

A few top-line items, and then the first-round projections with six days of games remaining.

• The Penguins might pull it off. A 6-5 overtime win over the Red Wings — their seventh in nine games — has them in the East’s second wild-card spot by all of one point. Their playoff odds are now at 56 percent, according to Dom Luszczyszyn. Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia are tied behind Pittsburgh, though the Flyers have one less game remaining than the rest.

• First place in the Atlantic Division is very much up for grabs. Boston has a one-point lead and a game in hand on the Panthers, which means the Bruins’ Saturday game against Pittsburgh will have stakes on both sides.

• The West field isn’t quite set. Vegas’ three-game losing streak means that the Blues are still mathematically alive. The Golden Knights have a three-point lead on St. Louis and a game in hand.

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Eastern Conference

(M1) New York Rangers vs. (W2) Pittsburgh Penguins

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:26 percent

The Penguins’ remaining schedule means they’ll have to white-knuckle it for the next week, but they still control their own destiny. A series against the Rangers might be a little closer than you’d expect. Pittsburgh has been a better five-on-five team this season, and they’ll have the “something weird is going on here” factor in their favor. The Rangers, of course, are significantly better overall and haven’t had to empty their tanks over the last few weeks. It’ll be worth watching either way. It’s also worth noting that, according to Dom, the Rangers’ most likely first-round opponent is the Islanders.

Remaining schedules: Rangers — NYI, OTT
Penguins — BOS, NSH, @NYI

(M2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (M3) New York Islanders

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:56 percent

No changes here, but both teams are playing some solid hockey. The Isles have won six straight, largely behind Semyon Varlamov, who increasingly looks like the Game 1 starter. In four April starts, he’s put up a .943 save percentage. A hot goalie would make this series a whole lot more interesting.

Remaining schedules: Hurricanes — @STL, @CHI, @CBJ
Islanders — @NYR, @NJD, PIT

(A1) Boston Bruins vs. (W1) Tampa Bay Lightning

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:70 percent

The Bruins still have some work to do if they want to stay in first place, though Dom puts their odds of winning the Atlantic at 83 percent. Either way, a matchup against the Lightning isn’t much of a prize.

Remaining schedules: Bruins — @PIT, @WSH, OTT
Lightning — @WSH, BUF, TOR

(A2) Florida Panthers vs. (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:82 percent

We’re approaching “lock it in” territory on a Panthers-Maple Leafs rematch. They play each other next week, which is always interesting. Keep an eye on the Panthers’s starter for that game. Anthony Stolarz shut out Ottawa earlier this week, putting his season save percentage at .926. Giving him another late look at the Leafs — he replaced Sergei Bobrovksy in a 6-4 loss on April 1 — couldn’t hurt.

Remaining schedules: Panthers — BUF, TOR
Maple Leafs — DET, @FLA, @TBL

Western Conference

(C1) Dallas Stars vs. (W2) Vegas Golden Knights

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 57 percent

Even though the Golden Knights haven’t clinched, they have enough games remaining to make the first wild-card spot or third Pacific Division spot a possibility. As it stands, a first-round series against Dallas is their most likely outcome — and that’d be just fine with us. The deadline additions (Chris Tanev for Dallas, Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl for Vegas) and the prospect of Mark Stone’s return add some juice to this one.

Remaining schedules: Stars — SEA, STL
Golden Knights — MIN, COL, CHI, ANA

(C2) Winnipeg Jets vs. (C3) Colorado Avalanche

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:98 percent

We’re so, so close to being able to write this one in pen. The teams flip-flopped spots this week thanks to the Jets’ five-game winning streak, during which they’ve beaten the Kings, Predators and Stars. If Winnipeg can maintain that level of play, this will be a treat.

Remaining schedules: Jets — @COL, SEA, VAN
Avalanche — WPG, @VGK, EDM

(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (W1) Nashville Predators

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:38 percent

Vancouver has alternated wins and losses for six straight games. That’s some quality water-treading and a habit they’ll need to break on Saturday against Edmonton. If this one comes to pass, the Predators may not be as popular an upset pick as we thought. They’ve lost five of seven and been outscored 29-20 in the process.

Remaining schedules: Canucks — @EDM, CGY, @WPG
Predators — @CHI, CBJ, @PIT

(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs (P3) Los Angeles Kings

Likelihood, via Dom Luszczyszyn:46 percent

No team has more games remaining than the Oilers, which means the Pacific Division title is still in play for them. A first-round series against the Kings, who’ve won four of their last five, is much more likely. We’ve seen that matchup in each of the last two first rounds. Why not make it three?

Remaining schedules: Oilers — ARI, VAN, SJS, @ARI, @COL
Kings — ANA, MIN, CHI

Eastern Conference standings

Western Conference standings

(Top photo of Erik Karlsson: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)