Barring an unexpected setback, two weeks from now the NHL playoffs will be underway.
Exactly when all eight first-round series spread across four divisions will start remains a bit fluid and the matchups themselves likewise remain unpredictable for the most part. But this week will go a long way to bringing some clarity on both the playoff schedule and the actual matchups.
As of Monday, this is what the playoff grid would look like and some things to consider as we hit the stretch run.
North Division
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maple Leafs | 33-13-5 | 5 | 5-2 | 19% |
Canadiens | 23-18-9 | 6 | 2-4-1 | 1% |
A week ago, we said there were questions surrounding the Maple Leafs’ goaltending. That seems like a million years ago after five wins in a row and the Leafs seem to grow more confident by the day. It seems like the plan will be to get Frederik Andersen some game action over the final five games. But it sure seems like you can lock Jack Campbell, 15-2-1 and .927 save percentage, into the starter’s role come playoff time.
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The Habs? Meh. Came from behind to beat Ottawa on Saturday and won a crucial game against Calgary early last week to really push the Flames out of the playoff picture. But without Carey Price, who continues to rehab a concussion, this looks like a team that can’t stand much adversity. Still, great to see Cole Caufield get his first goalon Saturday against the Sens.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
Montreal has closed to within two points of the slumping Jets but the Jets have a big lead in regulation or overtime wins which is the top tie-breaker. Each team has six games remaining but Montreal has Toronto three times and Edmonton twice. Yikes. So let’s pencil them into fourth place.
Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
Of course, this would be off the charts given the rivals haven’t faced off in the playoffs since 1979. And in spite of Montreal’s up and down play, getting Brendan Gallagher and Carey Price back will change the emotional temperature of this series.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Winnipeg Jets
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Oilers | 30-17-2 | 7 | 7-2 | 7% |
Jets | 27-20-3 | 6 | 2-7 | 5% |
The Oilers are starting to look invincible. They are tighter defensively. Mike Smith is playing his way into the Vezina Trophy discussion and did we mention Connor McDavid? He’s got his sights set on 100 points which is simply mind-boggling.
As for the Jets, never mind having or finding an answer for the Oilers, they don’t have an answer for anyone right now. Losers of six straight, head coach Paul Maurice has been trying to coax some emotion out of his group, reducing ice time for veterans like Mark Scheifele and shuffling lines. The loss of Nikolaj Ehlers is a big blow although it looks like Adam Lowry is edging closer to return.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
As noted, the Canadiens could overtake Winnipeg for third place in the North but just don’t see it happening, even as bad as the Jets have been.
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Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️½
Frankly, any series involving the dynamic Oilers and McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is going to be chock full of anticipation and more than a little drama, especially given how the Oilers took a knee in the play-in round against middling Chicago last summer.
East Division
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Boston Bruins
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Penguins | 34-15-3 | 4 | 3-4-1 | 3% |
Bruins | 30-14-6 | 6 | 5-3 | 9% |
The Penguins are slowly getting healthy at just the right time and are expecting Evgeni Malkin back at some point this week. Bad news for the rest of the East Division. We’re guessing the Penguins hang onto first place given their final four games are against divisional patsies Buffalo and Philadelphia.
The Bruins are on fire having gone 9-2-0 since the trade deadline. Taylor Hall has 10 points in 11 games since being dealt at the deadline and with Craig Smith tearing it up offensively, this Bruins team suddenly looks like the Bruins of old, able to hurt you from everywhere in the lineup.
Chances this series happens: 🔒
Five points separate first and fourth in the most balanced division and the standings change on a daily basis, so get back to us in a week.
Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
Not a ton of recent playoff history but both these teams are looking to prove their Stanley Cup windows aren’t closed and, of course, Boston is where Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan got his NHL head coaching start and a little Patrice Bergeron/Sidney Crosby tete-a-tete is bound to be meaningful.
Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitals | 32-14-5 | 5 | 6-2 | 3% |
Islanders | 31-15-5 | 5 | 2-5-1 | 3% |
The Capitals have been shuffling along for a week or so now without captain Alex Ovechkin, who is recovering from a lower-body injury. We’re guessing if the playoffs started today he’d be in the lineup. The Capitals have all kinds of opportunities to slide back into first place, although it really doesn’t matter where they start the playoffs given how good they’ve been on the road. Their 17 road wins are the most in the division.
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Meanwhile, the Isles are the Isles — not really lighting it up offensively but not needing to. Same as it ever was under Barry Trotz. Deadline additions Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri have combined for just two goals and two assists.
Chances this series happens: 🔒
Boston’s games in hand and ease of schedule suggest they will move into the top three of the East Division while the Caps still have designs on first place.
Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
You know the Capitals would love a shot at a little playoff payback after their miserable outing against the Islanders in the first round last season.
Alex Nedeljkovic. (Scott Audette / NHLI via Getty Images)
Central Division
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Nashville Predators
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hurricanes | 34-10-7 | 5 | 6-0 | 7% |
Predators | 28-22-2 | 4 | 0-5-1 | 0% |
The Predators have achieved the very difficult goal of transforming their identity on the fly. This team is more physical and much harder to play against than early in this season and certainly during the last couple of disappointing seasons. They don’t score a bunch and their special teams aren’t great but they work hard and have found a way to revive their season behind the play of Juuse Saros, who should be getting some love not just for the Vezina Trophy but a place on Hart Trophy ballots, too. Come playoff time will be playing with house money.
Meanwhile, the Hurricanes are dialed in and have so much speed and depth they are going to be a handful for anyone they come across. Teuvo Teravainen’s return after missing almost half the season with concussion issues is key. Alex Nedeljkovic is a number one NHL netminder as his 1.89 GAA and .934 save percentage suggests and the 25-year-old deserves to start come playoff time, in our opinion.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
Dallas is still hovering on the edge of the race for fourth place in the Central. The Canes are closing in on a division title while still in the hunt for a possible Presidents’ Trophy.
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Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
Two excellent buildings that are likely to see the number of fans allowed in grow by the time the playoffs roll around.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Lightning | 35-14-3 | 4 | 3-3 | 15% |
Panthers | 34-14-5 | 3 | 3-2-1 | 1% |
Tampa is just sort of ambling along. Not really good. Not really bad. Their win in Detroit on Sunday avenged a shootout loss to the lowly Wings the day before. You know head coach Jon Cooper is going to have this team in the right place come Game 1. Tampa’s 20 home wins are tied for the most in the NHL so the Panthers will be looking to stay ahead of the Bolts and keep home-ice advantage, although the Bolts hold the edge now. Tampa is hoping to add elite talent in the form of Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos for the postseason.
The Panthers continue to pile up the goals and how good has Sam Bennett been since being acquired from Calgary at the deadline? How about 13 points in nine games good? He might be the single most impactful deadline acquisition at this point. They’re likely going to need all those goals as they must figure out what to do about their goaltending. Chris Driedger has been out with a minor injury. This begs the question, is Sergei Bobrovsky currently the third-best goaltender on the roster now with Spencer Knight looking impressive after being given his first taste of NHL goaltending? Not a great debate to be having with less than two weeks to go before the playoffs.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒🔒
There’s a possibility either of these teams could overtake Carolina for first place but unlikely given Carolina’s schedule and the math.
Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
How much fun would the first-ever all-Florida playoff series be? Given the firepower both these teams possess every night would be a carnival of goals. Bring it.
West Division
Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Golden Knights | 36-12-2 | 6 | 4-1-1 | 8% |
Blues | 23-19-7 | 7 | 2-3-1 | 1% |
Watching the Blues spit up a 3-1 lead on Saturday against Minnesota, losing 4-3 in overtime, was a reminder of just how wacky this team is. If the Blues are one-and-done in the playoffs, as they were last summer, you have to believe significant changes will be made by GM Doug Armstrong. The Blues are lucky Arizona is, well, Arizona, and actually qualifying for the playoffs isn’t a real issue.
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In the end, it may not matter what mental shape the Blues are in come playoff time as Vegas is just that good, a team with no real obvious flaws. As Pierre LeBrun noted after talking to Vegas owner Bill Foley, it’s possible the Golden Knights will be playing in front of a full house early in the postseason. They’re 19-4-2 at home and their plus-58 goal differential is tops in the league.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒
Still like Vegas to win the West but Colorado’s schedule is pretty easy. So could easily see the Avs sneaking ahead of Vegas for first place.
Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️
Actually, this is one of those series that would either be 5-out-5 or 1-out-5 because either St. Louis is going to get their act together, as they did in 2019, and turn this into a seven-game epic or they’re going to play like they have for long stretches of the season and they’ll get steamrolled.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
| Team | Record | Remaining | Head-to-head | Dom's Cup chances |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Avalanche | 33-12-4 | 7 | 5-2-1 | 22% |
Wild | 32-14-4 | 6 | 3-5 | 3% |
Everyone knows there will be at least a couple of upsets in the first round. We’re guessing the West is ripe for one such upset. The Wild have the offensive chops to stay with the big boys in the division – they are tied for eighth in the league in goals per game – a deep, talented blue line, solid goaltending and a great never-say-die attitude that should see head coach Dean Evason a finalist for the Jack Adams Trophy.
The Avalanche, of course, are elite and with Philipp Grubauer back in the lineup, they will hit the postseason as a Stanley Cup favorite regardless of where they finish in the West. The absence of Nazem Kadri is problematic but not crushing.
Chances this series happens: 🔒🔒🔒
As noted above the Avs, in theory, have a pretty easy time of it down the stretch, so could jump into first ahead of Vegas. Of course, if the Avs stumble the Wild have an opportunity to jump into second and steal home-ice advantage in the first round.
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Interest-Meter: 🌶️🌶️🌶️🌶️
There’s just something about this Wild team that makes you want to pay attention and even though they’d be prohibitive underdogs against the Avs or the Golden Knights, scouts and analysts we’ve spoken to are universal in their belief the Wild are going to be a difficult out.
Five things to watch this week
1. Dallas really needed a regulation win in Nashville on Saturday. Then, when they went to overtime with the score 0-0, they really needed the extra point. Didn’t happen as the Stars ended up losing 1-0 in OT. It was their 13th overtime or shootout loss of the season, most in the league. Woulda, coulda, shoulda but if even three or four of those games go the other way, they control their own fate. Now they start the week three points back of Nashville with five games to play, all on the road. Yes, they have one game in hand but does it really matter especially when the Stars have Florida and Tampa twice this week? Probably not.
2. It is, for us, a two-team race to see who earns the Presidents’ Trophy: Vegas and Carolina. Carolina starts the week with a one-point lead but Vegas has a better winning percentage. Does it mean anything, especially in this most unusual of seasons? We’d argue yes, perhaps even more than normal. Without the traditional conference structure, having the best record would give you home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs but also in the final four the team with the most regular-season points draws the team with fewest. That is not insignificant, especially if there’s an upset or two along the way. Of course, history suggests that owning that particular piece of hardware has little to do with winning the big prize. Since the 2004-05 lockout, only two teams, the 2008 Red Wings and the 2013 Blackhawks, have parlayed a Presidents’ Trophy win into a Stanley Cup win. Interesting, though, that the ’13 Blackhawks did so during a season shortened to 48 games due to a labor dispute, so there’s that.
3. Don’t often see goaltending debates headed down the stretch but this week will go a long way to determining whether Ilya Samsonov regains the starter’s net for the playoffs for the Capitals or if rookie Vitek Vanecek, who leads all rookie netminders with 18 wins, supplants him. We’d say Samsonov has the inside track but just barely and games against the Rangers and Flyers will be closely scrutinized. We noted the Florida dynamic where Bobrovsky has been just average for most of the season. Of the 18 goaltenders with 30 or more appearances, Bobrovsky ranks 14th with a .904 save percentage. Driedger has been the steadier of the two with a nice 2.17 GAA and .923 save percentage. But do you leave a $70-million goalie on the bench in the playoffs? You do if it means knocking off the Lightning. In Boston, it looks like Jeremy Swayman, 6-2-0, .942 save percentage, will back up Tuukka Rask to start the postseason ahead of Jaroslav Halak. Frankly, we get the feeling there is so much confidence in Swayman that if Rask falters Bruce Cassidy wouldn’t hesitate to go to the 22-year-old.
4. After losing on the night of the trade deadline, April 12, the Hurricanes are 7-0-3 and we’re already penciling in Jani Hakanpaa as this year’s possible Michal Kempny Award winner. Kempny, of course, was the under-the-radar add by Washington at the 2018 trade deadline and helped stabilize its blue line en route to a Stanley Cup. Hakanpaa was acquired from Anaheim for Haydn Fleury and has fit seamlessly into a deep, talented blue line corps adding size and physicality while proving to be surprisingly mobile and he’s scored twice. Go figure. If, as predicted by some, Seattle takes Brady Skjei in the expansion draft, it wouldn’t surprise us if GM Don Waddell circles back to Hakanpaa, a UFA.
5. A tip of the hat to netminder Ryan Miller who announced he will retire at the end of this season. He will walk away with more wins than any American-born netminder in the history of the NHL, a Vezina Trophy and a silver medal from an MVP turn during the 2010 Olympics in Vancouver. Probably not quite a Hall of Fame resume but pretty damned good. We had a ringside seat to his greatest moments in Vancouver as he led an unheralded bunch of Americans to within one goal of an improbable gold medal. Have to imagine Dallas Eakins will give Miller the start in the Ducks’ final regular-season game Saturday against Minnesota. And if we’re running things at new broadcast partners ESPN and/or Turner Sports, we are on the phone yesterday with Miller and his people about whether he might consider joining a national broadcast crew. Thoughtful and candid, Miller would be a welcome addition to what is a brave new world of NHL hockey broadcasting set to begin next fall.
(Top photo: Joe Sargent / NHLI via Getty Images)
