NHL playoff predictions: Second-round winners, a new Stanley Cup favorite, MVP picks and more (2024)

The Maple Leafs have ended their drought, the Panthers have slayed Goliath and the reigning champs have fallen.

The first round of the NHL playoffs was eventful, to say the least.

On Monday night, the Devils beat the Rangers to become the final team in the second-round field. On Tuesday, the Game 1s begin, with Panthers-Maple Leafs followed by Kraken–Stars. On tap for Wednesday are Devils-Hurricanes and Oilers–Golden Knights.

What do we expect when the games begin? What have we learned so far? Who will be left standing when we hit the conference finals?

The Athletic surveyed its NHL staff to get their answers to these questions. We asked for a winner for each second-round series, plus updated picks to win the Eastern and Western Conferences, the Stanley Cup and the Conn Smythe.

Here are the full results of our survey. To analyze and critique the picks, we’ve brought in senior national writer Sean Gentille, national writer Hailey Salvian, analytics guru Shayna Goldman and NHL betting expert Jesse Granger.

Second-round series predictions

Metropolitan Division: Devils vs. Hurricanes

Granger: It’s understandable that people are down on the Hurricanes. The injuries to Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teräväinen certainly make the top of the lineup a lot less frightening, but this team is still really deep. Paul Stastny had three goals in the first round, including the series winner, and he’s centering the fourth line. Having said that, the Devils are finally getting goals from players not named Jack Hughes, so their depth is looking better as well.

Salvian: I am a tad concerned about Carolina’s offense through the first round. The Hurricanes scored a modest 16 goals — 10 at five-on-five. Seven of the all-situation tallies were scored by Stastny and Sebastian Aho, so the secondary scoring isn’t bad, per se, but it could be better. On the other hand, the Devils scored only 17 goals in Round 1 and only seven at five-on-five — and had an extra game to do it.

Gentille: It’s one thing to outscore the Islanders and another thing to outscore the Devils. Points to Carolina for a solid run under crummy circ*mstances, but I can’t pick them to keep it together any longer.

Goldman: The Hurricanes are the perfect team to disrupt the Devils’ system, so even without all the finish and flash (especially with New Jersey’s goaltending in mind), Carolina may be just fine in this series. This seems like more of a toss-up than if the Canes had gotten the Rangers. It’s a good test of the best forechecking team against the best off the rush.

Atlantic Division: Panthers vs. Maple Leafs

Salvian: The Leafs advanced to the second round for the first time since 2004. But the Panthers just upset the best regular-season team in NHL history. Now what? The Leafs are the favorites, but let’s not take Florida lightly … again. Coach Paul Maurice overhauled the team’s free-wheeling offense and made it stronger on the forecheck. That style tends to work better in the playoffs. Matthew Tkachuk is going to continue to drag his team into the fight. Brandon Montour and Carter Verhaeghe have been great, too. I like Florida a lot, but I can’t help but wonder if we will see a leveled-up Leafs team in Round 2 now that it’s over the hump. Either way, I like this matchup a lot.

Granger: If the Maple Leafs had a historically great regular season, they would be in serious trouble facing Sergei Bobrovsky, who is apparently unbeatable against those teams. Luckily for Toronto, its season was just very good and not great, so I’ve got the Leafs.

Gentille: I’ve come to terms with the fact that I’m simply never going to trust Bobrovsky enough to pick his team to win a series, evidence be damned. Just can’t get there.

Goldman: If Bobrovsky can’t get there, there’s always Alex Lyon. It would be chaotic, but what better storyline to upset the Maple Leafs than chaos?

Read more: Full series preview

Central Division: Kraken vs. Stars

Granger: I honestly expected more belief in the Kraken after taking down the defending champs, but I will admit Dallas seems to match up better than Colorado did. Seattle overwhelmed the Avalanche with depth, but the bottom of the Stars’ lineup is definitely stronger and should be better equipped to handle it.

Gentille: Yeah, especially if the Stars wind up spreading the wealth and going with Joe Pavelski on a line with Max Domi and Mason Marchment. I fully expect, like, Daniel Sprong to score four times in this series, though. That’s how Seattle rolls.

Goldman: It’s not a knock to the Kraken, who already have proven we can’t count them out, but the Stars are that good in pretty much every area. So it makes sense we’re thinking they take this and it goes fewer than seven games. But I am here for the boldness of Seattle shaking this up and doing it in like five or six.

Read more: Full series preview

Pacific Division: Oilers vs. Golden Knights

Granger: This is such a fascinating matchup of contrasting strengths. The Golden Knights have won all season with a balanced attack and structured defense, and now they must find a way to corral the most dynamic offense in hockey. With a lot of inexperience in net, the goalies could play a bigger role than many are anticipating in this series.

Salvian: I am sensing a high-scoring series.

Gentille: Yeah, what’s the over/under on goalies in this one? Is 4.5 too aggressive?

Goldman: Maybe the best part of this series is that we all think it’s going long. Vegas had the shortest Round 1 of any team, but it wasn’t as exciting of a matchup. Connor McDavid versus Mark Stone? Yep, we’ll take all six or seven.

Read more: Full series preview

Beyond the second round

Eastern Conference champion

Salvian: Seventy-one percent of our staff picked Boston or the Rangers before the playoffs began. Now they’re gone and Toronto has absorbed most of those votes. A few folks joined Josh Cooper on the Panthers wagon, while the Devils and Canes each got a few nods. Side note: I think it bodes well for a Carolina-New Jersey series that they each got 14.6 percent of the vote. Should be a close one.

Gentille: #CooperKnew

pic.twitter.com/Pmjk7lSaw8

— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) May 1, 2023

Granger: The Maple Leafs being the runaway favorite here is great. It’s either going to be a highly entertaining, magical run or a complete disaster, and I’m here for either.

Western Conference champion

Salvian: I picked Dallas. I like its core group of players — Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen and Roope Hintz — and veterans Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin have been producing, as well. It looks like Pavelski might be back soon, which will provide a boost. And, of course, Jake Oettinger is a gamer.

Granger: The conference picks mirror the odds at the sportsbook. Toronto is a sizable favorite at plus-175 to win the East, with the next-closest Carolina at plus-275. The West is a bit tighter, but the Oilers are still the frontrunners at plus-185 to reach the final.

Goldman: The Oilers make a ton of sense. How many of us picked them last year when they were a bit weaker? Now we’re all seeing Mattias Ekholm click in Edmonton plus Leon Draisaitl on two legs. They seem like the rightful favorites.

Stanley Cup champion

Granger: With Boston, Colorado and Tampa Bay all bowing out in the first round, it just feels like it’s McDavid’s time. Or Auston Matthews’ time.

Salvian: Or Robertson’s!

Gentille: I felt honor-bound to stick with the team I’d picked to lose to Boston in the Cup Final, even though I wanted to jump on the Stars’ bandwagon. Doesn’t matter. I don’t know what I’m talking about.

Conn Smythe winner

Granger: It’s not surprising Oettinger’s votes here almost exactly mirror the votes for Dallas to win the Stanley Cup. He’s been absolutely brilliant for the Stars, and if they do win it all it will almost certainly be on his shoulders. Oettinger’s .945 save percentage in 15 career playoff games is the highest in NHL history by goalies with at least 10 starts in the postseason, and it’s not close. He’s clear of Tim Thomas’ .933 by a good margin.

Gentille: My logic in my original pick was to Go with the leading scorer from the Cup-winning team. That can no longer be David Pastrnak, so congratulations, Leon Draisaitl.

Goldman: I’m surprised that Draisaitl isn’t number one. But let’s give a shout-out to Aho. If this is the year the Canes pull it off, he’s absolutely The Guy. He had a fantastic first round.

How have we done so far?

First-round series predictions

Here’s how our first-round predictions held up, with the actual result of the series, the percent of voters who picked the right team and the percent who picked the right team and number of games:

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Tom Pennington, Peter Joneleit and Mike Carlson / Getty Images)