Mel Kiper Jr., Football analystApr 25, 2024, 06:45 AM ET
Close
- Mel Kiper has served as an NFL draft analyst for ESPN since 1984. He is a regular contributor on "SportsCenter," ESPN studio shows and ESPN Radio. He is the co-host of the First Draft podcast, and he writes regularly for ESPN+.
If you're reading this right now, congratulations -- you've made it. The 2024 NFL draft is upon us. We're here. Round 1 begins Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC and the ESPN app).
This class features a lot of mystery ... after No. 1. We know the Bears are going to take the best player in the draft there, but there's intrigue after that, including potential trades up for quarterbacks. So while I'm not doing a mock during the week of the draft this year, I wanted to tell everyone what I'm hearing after my calls around the league with front office execs, coaches and people who know best.
Here are 20 things to know ahead of Round 1, including a few predictions, teams that could trade up (or down), wild-card teams that have me scratching my head, and prospects who might slip out of the top 32 picks. You can check out my final Big Board rankings for the draft, which includes the top 150 prospects overall and the best at every position. And, of course, I'll be on air Thursday night giving my thoughts about every pick. Let's dig in:
Jump to a section:
Eight predictions | Teams that could trade
Players who could drop | Biggest wild card teams
Eight predictions for Round 1
The first three picks will be chalk: I know this might be a little boring at this point, but I'm hearing there won't be any surprises at the top of the board. I expect Caleb Williams (USC) to go the Bears, followed by Jayden Daniels (LSU) to the Commanders and Drake Maye (North Carolina) to the Patriots, making it quarterbacks at Nos. 1, 2 and 3. That's exactly the way I had it in my most recent solo mock draft, and it's the order I have the QBs in my Big Board.
Michael Penix Jr. won't fall past No. 13: The Washington quarterback is liked by several teams with picks in the teens, but I don't think he'll last past the Raiders at No. 13. That's a little rich for my tastes -- he finished No. 24 on my Big Board -- but there are several teams looking for their quarterback of the future in this class, and his accuracy, experience and moxie make him appealing.
The Chargers will take an offensive tackle at No. 5 ... if they don't trade down: Joe Alt (Notre Dame) and JC Latham (Alabama), my top-ranked tackles, likely will both be on the board when L.A. is on the clock. Will Jim Harbaugh really pass on one of them when we know he wants to build from the trenches? It might take a huge haul of picks to do so. More on that in a minute.
The Titans will take a tackle or wide receiver at No. 7: Tennessee's need at offensive tackle is too great; it can't afford to trade down. Right? But what if wide receiver Rome Odunze (Washington) is available? My second-ranked receiver would be awfully appealing, especially if Alt is off the board. I still think the most likely scenario is the Titans taking Alt and starting a run on OTs -- we could see six or seven more in the top 32. Alt, my No. 1 tackle, is exactly the player the Titans need to protect Will Levis' blind side.
The Steelers will pick Graham Barton: Barton, my top-ranked center, has been a hot name in my calls with execs and coaches over the past week. People in the league think he'll be really good immediately at the next level. Pittsburgh, which picks at No. 20 and has had big-time centers throughout its history, is the team most linked with Barton (Duke). I don't think it's out of the question Mike Tomlin & Co. trade up a few spots to make sure they get him.
The Bucs will pick Chop Robinson: I've heard Bucs GM Jason Licht is trying to upgrade his pass rush at No. 26, and I like the connection between the Bucs and Robinson (Penn State), who is skilled but didn't always put it together in college. The Bucs ranked 24th in pressure percentage (27%) despite blitzing at the third-highest rate in the NFL (40%) last season, so they have to improve their front seven. They might still be able to land Robinson if they move down a couple of spots.
The Falcons will take the first defensive player in the draft: I see this as edge rusher Dallas Turner (Alabama) or defensive tackle Byron Murphy II (Texas). The Falcons' defensive line was rough last season. Atlanta finished 32nd in pass rush win rate (30.9%). I have Turner ranked higher on my board (No. 9 vs. No. 27), but many teams see Murphy as an impact interior pass-rusher, which has increased his value.
This draft will break the record for most offensive players selected in Round 1: There have been 19 offensive players taken in the top 32 picks three times -- 1968, 2004 and 2009. We might see 21 this year, and we'll definitely get 20. In fact, one of the final guys might be quarterback Bo Nix (Oregon), who would be the sixth QB in Round 1, which would tie the record from 1983. We know teams value the fifth-year option for players, and it's given only to first-rounders. I could see a team trading into get Nix late in the first round.
Booger, Kiper make their picks for best WR in the 2024 draft
Booger McFarland and Mel Kiper Jr. debate whether Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best WR in the NFL draft.
Five teams that could make Round 1 trades
Minnesota Vikings: This is the team to watch to get into the top 10 for a quarterback, most likely J.J. McCarthy (Michigan). But I don't think the Vikings necessarily have to move into the top five. They might be able to move up only a few spots -- maybe in a trade with the Falcons at No. 8? -- to get McCarthy. Minnesota owns Nos. 11 and 23 in Round 1, thanks to its trade last month with the Texans.
Los Angeles Chargers: As I mentioned, the Chargers have major needs at wide receiver and tackle, but they might be able to fill those needs farther down the board. If team wants to trade up for a quarterback or wideout, L.A. could pick up some valuable capital in its mini rebuild under coach Jim Harbaugh. I could see the Chargers moving down a few spots and still getting Latham, who fits Harbaugh's smashmouth, old-school style.
Philadelphia Eagles: My pal Adam Schefter teased this earlier this week, but the Eagles, who own No. 22, are the team to watch in the cornerback market. Will they move up for Quinyon Mitchell (Toledo) or Terrion Arnold (Alabama)? They likely will have to get ahead of the Colts (No. 15) and Jaguars (No. 17) to guarantee them the guy they like, which could cost one of their second-rounders (Nos. 50 or 53). They don't have a third-round pick.
Buffalo Bills: Are the Bills really going to stay at No. 28 and let the wide receiver board shake out in front of them? I don't see it. They have to get an early contributor to help Josh Allen. I wonder if they'd make a move into the late teens for Brian Thomas Jr. (LSU), who might be their No. 1 wideout as a rookie. I just don't think they can afford to wait it out. Buffalo has two fourth-round picks and three fifth-rounders to use in deals.
New York Jets: I'm coming around to the idea of the Jets passing on tight end Brock Bowers (Georgia) at No. 10, trading down a few spots and taking an offensive tackle. They could get Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State) or Olu Fashanu (Penn State) and pick up extra capital. Remember that they don't have a second-round pick as a result of the Aaron Rodgers trade.
Three prospects who could drop out of Round 1
Roger Rosengarten, OT, Washington: If you've seen any of my recent mock drafts, you know how much I like Rosengarten, who didn't allow any sacks in college. I think he'd be a perfect fit at right tackle for the 49ers. The more I talk to execs and coaches, however, the more I think he's likely to fall into Round 2. I'll definitely be giving high marks to whichever team takes him, though.
Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon: There was some buzz over the past month about Powers-Johnson being a fit in Pittsburgh or Miami in Round 1, but I just don't see it on tape. The 2023 Rimington Trophy winner is versatile, but I'd feel more comfortable with him in the second round. He finished as my No. 57 overall prospect.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama: I really like McKinstry's tape from the past two seasons, but his foot injury -- a Jones fracture was discovered by doctors at the combine -- might cause him to slide out of Round 1. The team that gets him could add a future star, though.
Four biggest wild-card teams in Round 1
New York Giants: Would they really pass on wide receiver Malik Nabers (LSU) at No. 6? Would they take McCarthy if he was still available? Daniel Jones had a dismal season and then tore an ACL in November, but he has never played with a true No. 1 receiver. Taking Nabers would be a way to support him, at least for 2024. They have to put Jones in the best position to succeed. Resetting with McCarthy wouldn't fix their issue at wide receiver, putting McCarthy in the same disadvantaged position as Jones.
Los Angeles Rams: I'm not sure anyone really knows what GM Les Snead will do; the Rams haven't picked in Round 1 since 2016. But I do know they at least have some interest in Nix, and it wouldn't be totally shocking if they picked him at No. 19 -- or moved down a few spots to take him. I also see defensive tackle, cornerback and offensive line as possibilities, so it's not like the Rams are loaded with depth in other positions.
Miami Dolphins: This one is difficult because the Dolphins have so many needs and because Pittsburgh could take the Dolphins' preferred interior offensive lineman a pick ahead of them. Miami also could take a No. 3 wide receiver or an edge rusher to add to its depth. There are several ways to go, which makes the Dolphins difficult to predict.
Chicago Bears: Don't be surprised if they take a pass-rusher with their second Round 1 pick (No. 9). They've been linked to Odunze, but what happens if Turner or Murphy slips past Atlanta at No. 8? I also could see GM Ryan Poles trading back a few spots and going with edge rusher Jared Verse (Florida State), whom I have at No. 22 overall on my Big Board but whom some teams like in the top 10. All I'm saying is the Bears aren't a lock to take a wideout.
