Our first stab at analyzing projected Stanley Cup playoff matchups ran seven days ago. Since, four of the eight first-round series have changed, two new teams have entered the bracket entirely, more chaos awaits the bottom of the Eastern Conference and 10 days of games remain.
There’s a point to doing this — we swear. Maybe not much of one, but a point nonetheless.
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A few top-line items before we get into the nitty-gritty:
• The Pittsburgh Penguins, who’ve won four straight and six of seven, aren’t currently in a playoff spot. If they win their five remaining games, though, they’re guaranteed to make it. Thursday night’s game against the Red Wings is a big one for both teams.
• The main reason for Pittsburgh’s glow-up: Washington and Philadelphia have derailed. Both spent time as the Metro third seed and top wild card last week, and neither is currently in either spot. The Capitals have lost six straight (and been outscored 25-10). Pretty bad … and still better than the Flyers, whose last win was on March 23.
• The Presidents’ Trophy race has narrowed a bit. The Rangers are still in the driver’s seat (110 points), and only Boston and Dallas (both with 107 points) look like viable candidates to catch them. Last week, six teams were within five points of New York, and those challengers had a lot more runway remaining. The Rangers, Bruins and Stars all have four games left on their schedule.
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Eastern Conference
(M1) New York Rangers vs. (W2) Detroit Red Wings
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn:45 percent
The Wings deserve some credit for scratching out four points in three games this week; they’d gone 3-10-2 in their last 15. Their only loss came on Friday night to, naturally, their projected-for-now first-round opponent. No shame there. This week, the Rangers can clinch the Presidents’ Trophy and ruin the Islanders’ season, so they’ve also got plenty at stake. They’ll be prohibitive favorites against whoever they play in the first round, but Detroit would be a particularly nice draw. Both teams rely heavily on shooting talent and their power play, but only one is actually good.
Remaining schedules: Rangers — @NYI, PHI, NYI, OTT
Red Wings — WSH, @PIT, @TOR, MTL, @MTL
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(M2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (M3) New York Islanders
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn:59 percent
Canes-Isles for a second straight season might be fun, especially if Ilya Sorokin continues to heat up. He stopped 43-of-46 shots and won both of his starts last week. The Isles have spent most of the season looking like the third-best team in the Metro, and now the standings match. Whether that holds hinges on two games against the Rangers and one against the Penguins (on the last day of the season).
Remaining schedules: Hurricanes — @BOS, STL, @CHI, @CBJ
Islanders — NYR, MTL, @NYR, @NJD, PIT
(A1) Boston Bruins vs. (W1) Tampa Bay Lightning
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn:80 percent
Here’s our first holdover from last week. The Lightning are still hot (10-2-1 since the trade deadline) despite a wild regulation loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday. They’re not quite locked into the wild-card spot — Game 82 is against the Maple Leafs, who are currently four points ahead of them in the Atlantic Division. The Bruins, meanwhile, will spend their next 10 days trying to stay healthy and hoping the Rangers stub their toe. The Presidents’ Trophy would be nice, and a first-round series against the second wild card might be nicer.
Remaining schedules: Bruins — CAR, @PIT, @WSH, OTT
Lightning — CBJ, OTT, @WSH, BUF, TOR
(A2) Florida Panthers vs. (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn: 88 percent
With games this week against Pittsburgh and Detroit, the Maple Leafs will be able to ruin a season or two. They’ll also be able to lock in a matchup against the Panthers, who they beat 6-4 on April 1. More importantly in that game, they chased Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who they failed to figure out in last year’s second round. That’s one of several reasons the rematch needs to happen.
Remaining schedules: Panthers — OTT, CBJ, BUF, TOR
Maple Leafs — PIT, @NJD, NJD, DET, @FLA, TBL
Western Conference
(C1) Dallas Stars vs. (W2) Vegas Golden Knights
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn: 31 percent
At least one series in the West could double as a conference final. For the time being, it’s Dallas-Vegas. The Golden Knights fell back a spot thanks to a light week (two games) and a loss to Arizona. Not a huge deal; Tomas Hertl is ready to play his first game since Vegas acquired him at the deadline, and their remaining schedule is evenly split between contenders and lottery teams. If they do enough to jump back into the top wild-card spot, great. If not, we get to watch the West’s two deepest teams go blow-for-blow in the first round. Don’t count out Dallas for the Presidents’ Trophy, either. They’re three points behind the Rangers, have won nine of 10 and play non-qualifiers in three of their last four games.
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Remaining schedules: Stars — BUF, WPG, SEA, STL
Golden Knights — @VAN, @EDM, MIN, COL, CHI, ANA
(C2) Colorado Avalanche vs. (C3) Winnipeg Jets
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn: 97 percent
Status quo from last week, though it’s worth noting that the Jets have managed to get the train back on the tracks, winning three straight after a couple weeks of ugliness. Now, they’ve got a real shot at passing Colorado for second place in the Central and earning home ice for this series.
Remaining schedules: Avalanche — MIN, WPG, @VGK, EDM
Jets — @NSH, @DAL, @COL, SEA, VAN
(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (W1) Nashville Predators
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn: 27 percent
Not a great week for the Canucks, who lost to Vegas and Los Angeles. They haven’t beaten a playoff team since March 9 and have left plenty of work for themselves if they want to finish on top of the Pacific. Nashville, meanwhile, bounced back from its first mini-skid since mid-February. They can clinch a playoff spot on Tuesday.
Remaining schedules: Canucks — VGK, ARI, @EDM, CGY, @WPG
Predators — WPG, @CHI, CBJ, @PIT
(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs. (P3) Los Angeles Kings
Likelihood via Dom Luszczyszyn: 44 percent
The Oilers might be coming for the Canucks. Depending on how the week shakes out, first place in the division could be at stake on Saturday night in Edmonton. For the Oilers, staying in second place might not be a bad thing. The Kings are doing their part, with three straight wins and a plus-seven goal differential last week, but it’s still tough to imagine them generating enough offense to hang with Edmonton.
Remaining schedules: Oilers — VGK, ARI, VAN, SJS, @ARI, @COL
Kings — @ANA, CGY, ANA, MIN, CHI
Eastern Conference standings
Western Conference standings
(Top photo of James van Riemsdyk and Andrei Vasilevskiy: Mike Carlson / NHLI via Getty Images)
