In the 15 days since we started taking regular looks at the NHL playoff picture, five of the eight projected first-round series have changed. Is that any type of lesson? Not really. In some spots, the standings are volatile; in others, they aren’t. So it goes.
Now, with four days of regular-season games remaining, we’re almost officially at the end. One playoff spot is still unaccounted for, and three first-round matchups are very much in flux. A few top-line items before we get into the nitty-gritty:
• The Pittsburgh Penguins — for the fourth or fifth time this season, depending on your standards — appear to have blown it. They spent a day or so in the Eastern Conference’s second wild-card spot before losing to the Boston Bruins in regulation on Saturday. Now, boom, 11th place with two games remaining, with one point and three teams separating them from the postseason. At the moment, though, they hold the regulation win tiebreaker on all three of those teams (Washington, Detroit and Philadelphia). Will they have another opportunity to waste? Let’s see.
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• The Detroit Red Wings are in solid position to leapfrog Washington. Both teams have 87 points, and the Capitals are currently in the spot based on tiebreakers, but Detroit’s schedule (two games against Montreal) is a lot more favorable than Washington’s (Boston and Philadelphia).
• The Presidents’ Trophy race isn’t over. The Rangers (112 points) lead Carolina and Dallas by one point. Each has one game remaining, and each are playing lottery teams. Obviously, the Metropolitan Division title hinges on this one, as well.
• One series (Winnipeg vs. Colorado) is locked in, and two more are at 85 percent probability or greater, according to Dom Luszczyszyn.
Eastern Conference
(M1) New York Rangers vs. (W2) Washington Capitals
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 20 percent
Credit to the Capitals, who’ve scratched their way back after a six-game losing streak with … two wins in three games. That’s all it takes at the bottom of the East. They’re far from a lock to stick in that spot — but as a wise man said, that’s why they play the games.
"That's why they play the games"
-Chris Berman— Steve Levy (@espnSteveLevy) November 15, 2015
This matchup is in an even greater state of flux because the Rangers haven’t clinched. If it goes down, we’re penciling in “Caps in seven,” thanks to four one-goal wins and three losses by a combined 14. That’s how they work.
Remaining schedules: Rangers — OTT
Capitals — BOS, @PHI
(M2) Carolina Hurricanes vs. (M3) New York Islanders
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 69 percent
The Islanders (8-2-1 in their last 11) need two points against New Jersey on Monday to clinch third place in the Metro. Their most likely opponent there is still the Hurricanes, who’ve casually played to a points percentage of .825 (16-3-1) since the trade deadline. If nothing else, Semyon Varlamov and/or Ilya Sorokin have been good enough down the stretch to potentially make this one interesting.
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Remaining schedules: Hurricanes — @CBJ
Islanders — @NJD, PIT
(A1) Boston Bruins vs. (W1) Tampa Bay Lightning
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 85 percent
Boston derailed Pittsburgh on Saturday and has an opportunity on Monday to do the same with Washington. They’re 6-4-0 in their last 10 with a plus-2 goal differential and a bottom-five expected goals share, though. That’s probably not going to be good enough to beat the Lightning, even though their play has dipped a bit in April.
Remaining schedules: Bruins — @WSH, OTT
Lightning — BUF, TOR
(A2) Florida Panthers vs. (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 93 percent
We’ll get our series preview in Sunrise on Tuesday night. We also might get Auston Matthews’ 70th goal. Not bad for a game with no real seeding implications.
Remaining schedules: Panthers — TOR
Maple Leafs — @FLA, @TBL
Western Conference
(C1) Dallas Stars vs. (W2) Vegas Golden Knights
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 52 percent
The Golden Knights, with two games left against terrible teams, still have a chance to move out of this spot. If this is what we get, it should be a great one. Two of the teams’ three games this season went to overtime, and they last played on Dec. 9. Since then, Vegas has traded for Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin, while the Stars have traded for Chris Tanev and the good version of Jake Oettinger. In a lot of years, this would be your Western Conference final.
Remaining schedules: Stars — STL
Golden Knights — CHI, ANA
(C2) Winnipeg Jets vs. (C3) Colorado Avalanche
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 100 percent
Time to write the full preview for this one. The Jets (6-0-0 in their last six) are still rolling; the Avs, with losses in seven of their last 10, might officially be flailing. In consecutive nights, they’ve blown a three-goal third-period lead against the Golden Knights and gotten stomped 7-0 by — you guessed it — Winnipeg.
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Remaining schedules: Jets — SEA, VAN
Avalanche — EDM
(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs. (W2) Nashville Predators
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 72 percent
Nashville has banked seven of their eight possible points since a mini-skid, their first since mid-February. The Canucks, for their part, have now alternated wins and losses since March 31.
Remaining schedules: Canucks — CGY, @WPG
Predators — @PIT
(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs. (P3) Los Angeles Kings
Probability, via Dom Luszczyszyn: 68 percent
Remaining schedules: Oilers — SJS, @ARI, @COL
Kings — MIN, CHI
One point in their last two games, including a loss to Vancouver, means that the Oilers are all but locked into second place in the Pacific. The question is whether they play the team they lost to in last season’s second round (Vegas) or the team they’ve beaten in the last two first rounds (Los Angeles). The Kings, with two games left against lottery teams, are the more likely draw.
Eastern Conference standings
Western Conference standings
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(Top photo of Tyler Toffoli and Justus Annunen: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
