Everything to Know on NHL Playoff 2023 Races, Tiebreakers, Best Matchups, More (2024)

The 2022-23 NHL regular season has one week to go, and there are still a lot of things to decide.

Three of the four divisions are still up for grabs.

We only know one first-round playoff matchup (Toronto vs. Tampa Bay) while the other seven are still to be determined.

Three of the four wild-card spots are still up for grabs, with seven teams fighting for those spots.

We are going to take you through all of the important information you need to do know when it comes to potential matchups, potential dream matchups, Stanley Cup odds and tiebreaker scenarios as of Monday morning.

Away we go.

How the Eastern Conference Playoff Picture Looks Right Now

Atlantic 1 (No. 1 seed): Boston Bruins vs. Wild Card 2: New York Islanders
Atlantic 2: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Atlantic 3: Tampa Bay Lightning

Metropolitan 1: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Wild Card 1: Florida Panthers
Metropolitan 2: New Jersey Devils vs. Metropolitan 3: New York Rangers

What Is Still Up for Grabs

The Metropolitan Division: Carolina Hurricanes lead New Jersey Devils by one point.

The Carolina Hurricanes have hit a slump at the wrong time of year, and it has put their hold on the Metropolitan Division in jeopardy. The Devils enter the week just a single point back of the Hurricanes, while Carolina continues to struggle in the absence of both Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov. The good news for Carolina is that two of its final three games are against Ottawa and Detroit, two teams outside of the playoff picture.

The New York Rangers are also still lurking, trailing the Hurricanes by three points and the Devils by two points. Any of those three teams could end up taking the top spot in the Metropolitan Division and draw the first wild-card team in the first round, while the other two would meet in the No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup in the Metropolitan Division bracket.

The Two Wild-Card Spots: The New York Islanders and Florida Panthers have a one-point lead over Pittsburgh.

It is basically a three-team race for the two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference at this point, with the Florida Panthers, New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins all separated by just a single point in the standings.

The Panthers and Islanders both control their own playoff fortune and can clinch playoff spots by simply avoiding one regulation loss (or two overtime losses). A 2-0 or 1-0-1 record for either will put them in the playoffs.

The Penguins need to win their remaining two games and hope that one of New York or Florida loses one game in regulation (or loses two games in overtime). Their playoff streak of 16 consecutive seasons is on the line.

Buffalo is still mathematically alive in the race, but the Sabres would not only need to win out in their remaining four games, they would also need two of New York, Florida or Pittsburgh to finish with fewer than 93 points.

Tiebreaker Scenarios

The top tiebreaker in the NHL is regulation wins, and that is bad news for both Pittsburgh and Buffalo in the wild-card race. There is no way either of them can win the tiebreaker over New York or Florida based on the number of games remaining.

As of Monday, the Devils would own the tiebreaker in the Metropolitan Division, owning one more regulation win than both the Hurricanes and Rangers.

Matchup Wish List

1. New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils. This has looked like the likely No. 2 vs. No. 3 matchup in the Metropolitan Division for most of the season, and it would be a whale of a series between two fierce rivals. Aside from the rivalry aspect, it would also be incredible hockey between two of the best, most talented teams in the league. The Devils' speed might cause some problems for the Rangers, but the Rangers would unquestionably have the best goalie (Igor Shesterkin) in the matchup.

2. New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders. A lot would have to happen to get this matchup, but it would be worth it. The Rangers need to win out their remaining two games, while the Devils and Hurricanes would both need to lose all of their remaining games in regulation, while the Islanders would need to secure the top wild-card spot. It is a long shot. But it is still potentially on the table. The rivalry factor would be even more intense than Rangers vs. Devils, but the hockey probably wouldn't be as good. It would, however, be an elite goaltending matchup between Shesterkin and the Islanders' Ilya Sorokin.

3. Boston Bruins vs. Florida Panthers. This would be a potential matchup between the past two Presidents' Trophy winners and be a clashing contrast of styles. The Bruins are the best defensive team in the league with two starting-caliber goalies. The Panthers can not defend at all and have zero good goalies, but they have one of the top offenses in the league. It would also pit two of the biggest pests in the league (Brad Marchand and Matthew Tkachuk) against one another. Chaos would rule the day.

4. Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning. This is cheating to include this because it is the one matchup that is already locked in place, so we know it is going to happen. It is a rematch of last year's first round and will feature a ton of superstar talent on both sides of the ice and storylines galore. The Lightning continue their quest for a fourth straight Stanley Cup Final appearance. The Maple Leafs look to avoid an unprecedented seventh consecutive first-round exit. The drama will be high.

How the Western Conference Playoff Picture Looks Right Now

Central 1: Colorado Avalanche vs. Wild Card 2: Seattle Kraken
Central 2: Dallas Stars vs. Central 3: Minnesota Wild

Pacific 1 (No. 1 seed): Vegas Golden Knights vs. Wild Card 2: Winnipeg Jets
Pacific 2: Edmonton Oilers vs. Pacific 3: Los Angeles Kings

What Is Still Up for Grabs

The Central Division: Colorado, Dallas and Minnesota are all still alive in the race, with the Avalanche holding a two-point lead over Dallas and a four-point lead over Minnesota.

There is a four-point gap between the first-place team (Colorado) and the third-place team (Minnesota), and each team still has three games remaining on its schedule. All three teams are playing well down the stretch, but the defending Stanley Cup champion Avalanche remain in the driver's seat.

The Pacific Division: Vegas has a two-point lead over Edmonton.

The Vegas Golden Knights have bounced back from a disappointing 2021-22 season and are on track to win the Pacific Division and potentially get the No. 1 seed in the entire Western Conference. But the Oilers are hanging around just two points back thanks to improved depth and an historically great season from MVP front-runner Connor McDavid.

The Second Wild-Card Spot: Winnipeg is clinging to a one-point lead over Calgary with Nashville still lurking.

The Winnipeg Jets seemed like a playoff lock for most of the season, but they allowed Calgary and Nashville to hang around in the race. The Flames have been one of the biggest disappointments in the league this season, but they still have a chance to overtake Winnipeg for a playoff spot. Nashville has exceeded all expectations, fighting through massive injury issues and a trade deadline sell-off to also give itself a fighting chance.

Tiebreaker Scenarios

Winnipeg will own the tiebreaker over both Calgary and Nashville in the playoff race becaue of its 34 regulation wins, a number that neither the Flames nor the Predators can reach. There is still a chance that Nashville could own the tiebreaker over Calgary.

In the Central Division race, Dallas currently has two more regulation wins than Colorado and three more than Minnesota.

Edmonton (44 regulation wins) would easily win the tiebreaker over Vegas (36 regulation wins) in the Pacific Division.

Matchup Wish List

1. Edmonton Oilers vs. Calgary Flames. How could you not want to see this? The Battle of Alberta in the opening round? It would be perfect. The Oilers would need to overtake Vegas for the top spot in the Pacific Division, while Calgary would need to finish ahead of Winnipeg for the second wild-card spot to make it happen. The Flames have a decent chance to fulfill their part of the equation, but Edmonton has some work to do to hold up its end.

2. Vegas Golden Knights vs. Los Angeles Kings. The intrigue here would be Jonathan Quick, now a member of the Vegas Golden Knights, potentially facing the team he won two Stanley Cups with and is a franchise icon for. The revenge factor here would be high.

3. Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild. Speaking of revenge factor, Ryan Suter spent nine years as a member of the Minnesota Wild after signing a massive contract in free agency prior to the 2012-13 season. But following the 2020-21 season he was bought out, and the Wild are still committing more than $6 million against the cap to him this season as part of the buyout. On the flip side of that, John Klingberg is now a member of the Wild after leading Dallas' defense for eight seasons.

Which Team Will Have Home-Ice Advantage?

Simply put, it will be the team that has the best regular-season record. The Boston Bruins are the one team that we know would have home-ice advantage against any opponent after not only winning the Presidents' Trophy with the league's best record, but also setting the NHL single-season wins record.

Which Team Has the Best Odds to Win It All?

According to DraftKings, the favorites to win the Stanley Cup are as follows:

Matchup Wish List

1. Edmonton Oilers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs. This would be maximum superstar power for the NHL and extremely exciting hockey. Connor McDavid vs. Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs looking to win their first championship since 1967 and potentially ending that Stanley Cup drought. McDavid going for his first championship and putting the perfect ribbon on a historic performance. Given where both teams are in the standings and how good they both are, it is very realistic.

2. Boston Bruins vs. Colorado Avalanche. Arguably the two best teams in the league. The defending Stanley Cup champions looking to repeat, Boston looking to win the Stanley Cup after setting the single-season wins record and perhaps sending Patrice Bergeron out on top.

3. Vegas Golden Knights vs. Buffalo Sabres. A lot of wild things would have to occur for this to happen, mainly Buffalo somehow sneaking into the playoffs and then going on an improbable run through the playoffs, but let me just leave you with this thought. Jack Eichel vs. the Buffalo Sabres for the Stanley Cup. The chances of this actually happening are microscopic, but that fits under the theme of "wish list."

4. Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Minnesota Wild. Another improbable and unlikely possibility, but also a potentially fun one for the same reason as Buffalo and Vegas. The matchup here: Marc-Andre Fleury, a three-time champion in Pittsburgh, vs. his former team.

5. Calgary Flames vs. Florida Panthers. Perhaps the most unlikely of them all given the fact neither team is even a lock for the playoffs and both would need improbable runs, but again we go with the revenge factor and would have Matthew Tkachuk going against his former team in Calgary.

6. Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche. We have not had a Stanley Cup Final rematch in consecutive years since Pittsburgh and Detroit met in 2008 and 2009, but this would be sensational. Colorado going for its second straight championship and Tampa Bay looking to cement itself as an all-time great team and going for its fourth consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance and potentially its third championship in four years.

7. Boston Bruins vs. Edmonton Oilers. The NHL's two 60-goal scorers this season (Connor McDavid and David Pastrňák) going head-to-head. It would also be fascinating to watch Patrice Bergeron try to shut down McDavid over a best-of-seven series.

8. New York Rangers vs. Edmonton Oilers. Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox vs. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl would be sensational theatre.

9. Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Colorado Avalanche. This would just be a really fun, fast-paced, high-scoring series. Both teams have great offenses, neither team has great goaltending. Light up the scoreboard.

10. New Jersey Devils vs. Colorado Avalanche. Turning back the clock to the late 1990s and early 2000s when these two teams were consistently on top of the NHL. Jack Hughes, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar would be great star power.

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