There are a lot of things that make playoff hockey special, but one of the absolute best is playoff overtime. It’s sudden death, it’s next goal wins, and sometimes it takes a while to settle that. Sometimes it takes a very long while.
Thursday night we were treated to not one, not two, not three, but four overtimes in what was an instant classic conference final matchup between Carolina and Florida. More hockey? Yes, please.
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Ultimately the Panthers prevailed at 19:47 of the fourth overtime which was roughly 1:55 a.m. ET in non-hockey terms. Folks, it was a long one: 139:47 to be exact. That made it the second-longest game in the salary-cap era, the longest since Tampa Bay beat Columbus in six overtimes in 2020, and the sixth longest in hockey history.
Bobrovsky's impressive night ranks second among goalies' single-game performances in the analytics era.
That + a few more takeaways on the Panthers OT win over the Canes: https://t.co/2XyeCdKtJK
— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) May 19, 2023
The tension of one shot ending it is what makes playoff overtime great, but it’s also a completely different brand of hockey. Since 2007, 14 games have gone to triple-overtime (or longer) including this one. I took a look at each one to see how the game changed once regulation ends and overtime begins, along with what matters and what doesn’t.
The pace of play increases
Let’s start with something that may seem counter-intuitive when thinking about playoff overtime: the pace increases. Obviously, the actual players aren’t faster; most of them are already pretty fatigued. But that generally means less defensive pressure, more open space through the neutral zone, and softer forechecks. What that creates is an environment where teams take more shots in overtime.
In regulation the two teams collectively average 37.5 shot attempts per 20 minutes, peaking in the first and second periods before tightening up in the third. Overtime is a different story — the first overtime sees 39.5 shot attempts per 60, the second is at 38.2 with the third overtime and beyond jumping up to 41.7. The end result is 39.6 shot attempts per 20 minutes in overtime, a 5.7 percent increase. In Carolina on Thursday night, the two teams jumped from 34.3 in regulation to 41.8 in overtime.
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It’s not a whole lot, but it’s something. On top of the lessened defensive effort, it’s also likely due to a changed mentality on offense. One shot can change everything — why not throw more pucks toward the net?
Shot quality decreases
Now there’s a catch with the increased shot volume and it comes with a lower likelihood that those attempts will actually go in. If you were to play “long overtime bingo,” the announcer saying “It feels like this will never end!” is the free square right in the middle. They say it every time because it’s true — it really does feel like that.
The reason for that is the relative danger of each shot goes down the deeper we get into overtime, especially relative to what was seen in regulation. Players are too tired to defend as effectively, but that fatigue also translates to how players play with the puck. Shots have less zip and attacks have less punch. Here’s how it breaks down based on expected goals per shot attempt:
Period 1: 4.2 percent
Period 2: 4.4 percent
Period 3: 4.4 percent
Overtime 1: 3.8 percent
Overtime 2: 3.6 percent
Overtime 3+: 3.4 percent
In all, expected shooting percentage drops from 4.4 percent in regulation to 3.6 percent in overtime — an 18 percent decrease.
But that’s not all because offensive players are fatigued. There’s a more nefarious reason for the drop in shot quality and you can probably already guess what it is.
Penalties? Good one
Ah yes, the playoff rulebook. What’s in it exactly? No one knows for sure and the mystery only grows when overtime hits. You see, referees don’t want to decide the game. They want the players to decide the game and calling a penalty would mean affecting the outcome. Sound logic — except that ignoring penalties could also decide the game by giving the infracting team a free pass to break the rules. That’s already the case during regulation and overtime is an even bigger problem on that front as the rulebook basically goes out the window. Unless someone shoots the puck over the glass of course.
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So, how bad is it? Well …
During regulation, the referees essentially give each team one power play per period on average. In overtime, that gets cut in half. Rather than one penalty aside, it’s 0.86 combined penalties per 20 minutes.
That’s a 57 percent decrease. Completely cool and normal for the league to ignore the rulebook during the highest-leverage situations. On Thursday there were six power plays in three periods of regulation, but only three in the four periods of overtime.
Maybe, just maybe, players play a cleaner game knowing overtime is sudden death and taking a penalty would be a huge mistake. Maybe. It would be a sound theory for someone who has never watched playoff overtime in their life, but that’s not the reality we live in.
Momentum doesn’t carry over to overtime
To get to overtime the two teams have to have played a reasonably tight game. Maybe one side is luckier than the other or just getting more saves, but usually the two teams need extra time because the first 60 minutes were so close.
One hour is a lot of time, but it’s also not. Not enough for both teams to be at their best. “We didn’t play a full 60 minutes” is the king of sports cliches and it’s a cliche for a reason. Most teams don’t, but that has more to do with the other team imposing their will. In hockey, it’s about trading chances where one team might control the run of play for a bit before the other team gets its turn. Generally, teams want more turns and it’s those teams that win more often than not.
Sometimes it takes a while for a team to get their turn, though, and that’s why it’s not always safe to assume the team that controlled the game during regulation will continue doing so in overtime. Thursday’s game was a perfect example of that.
Going into overtime Carolina had 4.02 expected goals to Florida’s 1.65. It was a territorial drubbing, the kind of domination you’d come to expect from Florida. And that carried over through the first overtime, too. But things changed after that and Florida won the expected goals battle in periods five, six and seven. The final expected goals tally in overtime: 3.16 for Florida and 2.84 for Carolina. It was 2.63 to 1.78 in the final three frames.
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As it turns out, that’s not uncommon. Of the 14 games that went to triple-overtime, only half of the teams continued to win the scoring chance battle past regulation. Overtime was a brand new game.
Controlling play doesn’t dictate victory
Now, here’s the thing with that last point: Winning the scoring chance battle in overtime doesn’t guarantee victory, either.
By way of expected goals, Florida was the better team in overtime on Thursday night, but that’s not always the case. Expected goals looks at the quality of chances; the odds of each shot going in the net. But it takes a long time for that to line up perfectly with reality. While it may be indicative of which teams controlled the run of play on any given night, in a sudden-death situation where next goal wins, it won’t perfectly predict who scores next.
Of the 14 games to go past triple-overtime, it was once again another coin flip in terms of whether or not earning more scoring chances predicted victory. Half the teams that did won, but the other half lost.
It’s a small sample size, but it’s worth keeping in mind next time your favorite team finds itself in a lengthy overtime. Just because they’re getting dominated doesn’t mean they’re out of it. All it takes is one shot.
— Data via Natural Stat Trick
(Photo of the Panthers celebrating after their 4OT Game 1 win over the Hurricanes: James Guillory / USA Today)
