2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team (Published 2020) (2024)

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The Upshot|2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team

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The Upshot

By Josh Katz and Kevin Quealy

Visit this page for charts updated with the results of the latest games.

AFC East

Bills ✓ (11-3) » Dolphins (10-5) » Patriots ✗ (6-8) Jets ✗ (2-13)

AFC North

Steelers ✓ (12-3) » Ravens (10-5) » Browns (10-5) » Bengals ✗ (4-10-1)

AFC South

Titans (10-4) » Colts (10-5) » Texans ✗ (4-11) Jaguars ✗ (1-14)

AFC West

Chiefs ✓ (14-1) » Raiders ✗ (7-8) Chargers ✗ (6-9) Broncos ✗ (5-10)

NFC East

Football Team (6-9) » Cowboys (6-9) » Giants (5-10) » Eagles ✗ (4-10-1)

NFC North

Packers ✓ (11-3) » Bears (8-7) » Vikings ✗ (6-9) Lions ✗ (5-10)

NFC West

Seahawks ✓ (11-4) » Rams (9-6) » Cardinals (8-7) » 49ers ✗ (6-9)

For the last several weeks, our N.F.L. playoff simulator has explored every possible scenario, letting fans daydream about improbable outcomes.

Normally, there are so many ways a season can end that we use very large numbers to describe them. But now the postseason possibilities have winnowed enough that we can depict each team’s possible postseason paths as the branches of a tree.

We’ve included the trees for every team not yet mathematically eliminated.

AFC East

Bills ✓ (11-3)

The Buffalo Bills have won the A.F.C. East.

The have a sliver of a possibility that they could still get the No. 1 seed, which would require them to finish in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and the Steelers at 13-3 and then hope some strength-of-schedule tiebreakers go their way. That is quite unlikely, not least because it requires the Chiefs to lose two games.

Explore all the Bills’ playoff possibilities here.

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2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team (Published 2020) (1)

Dolphins (10-5)

The Dolphins beat the Raiders (7-8) on Saturday, giving them a clear path to a wild-card berth. Even if the Dolphins lose next week to the division-leading Bills (11-3), they are likely to make the postseason. A win against the Bills would clinch a spot for Miami.

Explore all the Dolphins’ playoff possibilities here.

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2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team (Published 2020) (2)

AFC North

Steelers ✓ (12-3)

The Steelers have lost three in a row, and their possible playoff outcomes now include a wild-card berth.

Explore all the Steelers’ playoff possibilities here.

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Ravens (10-5)

The Ravens are in third place in the A.F.C. North. A wild-card berth is their only hope. They cannot win the division. If they win their remaining games — both eminently winnable, against the Giants and Bengals — they’ll finish 11-5, and it would put them in position for the No. 5 seed, depending on how other A.F.C. wild-card teams fare. They must win at least one of their next two games to have a chance.

Explore all the Ravens’ playoff possibilities here.

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Browns (10-5)

The Browns have 10 wins for the first time since 2007. If they win their remaining games, it will be their best season since the Reagan administration. They could still win the division, if they win out and the Steelers lose in Week 16. But they could miss the playoffs, too. A 10-6 record does not guarantee a playoff berth.

Explore all the Browns’ playoff possibilities here.

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AFC South

Titans (10-4)

The Titans share the same record as the Indianapolis Colts but have an edge on the tiebreaker between them. The division title is theirs to lose. If they lose both their remaining games — an outcome that could certainly happen, as they face the Packers and the Texans — it’s likely they will lose the division but make it into the playoffs as a wild card.

Explore all the Titans’ playoff possibilities here.

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Colts (10-5)

The Colts share the same record as the Tennessee Titans but have paths to the playoffs whether or not they win the A.F.C. South. Even if they lose to the Steelers (11-3) in Week 16, a win against the Jaguars (1-13) to end the season should be enough for a playoff berth. And, of course, the Colts can win the division, but they need the Titans to slip.

Explore all the Colts’ playoff possibilities here.

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AFC West

Chiefs ✓ (14-1)

The Chiefs (13-1) sit atop the A.F.C. West and are the top contender to get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs. They have clinched the division.

The playbook to get the No. 1 seed is simple: win one of their remaining games.

Worst possible finish: the No. 2 seed.

Explore all the Chiefs’ playoff possibilities here.

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NFC East

Football Team (6-9)

Washington has the best record in the N.F.C. East. Fans of the Football Team have a simple task each week — root for wins and hope the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles lose. A mere record of 8-8 would clinch the division.

Explore all the Football Team’s playoff possibilities here.

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Cowboys (6-9)

The Cowboys must win their remaining games to have a chance. Even then, chances are slim.

Explore all the Cowboys’ playoff possibilities here.

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Giants (5-10)

The Giants remain a game behind Washington in the N.F.C. East and face a difficult game in Week 16, visiting the Baltimore Ravens (9-5). Amazingly, they can lose that game and still win the division at 6-10.

Explore all the Giants’ playoff possibilities here.

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NFC North

Packers ✓ (11-3)

The Green Bay Packers have clinched the N.F.C. North. They are in the top spot in the conference, and the bye week is theirs to lose. As long as the Packers beat the Bears in Week 17, it is theirs. They could also clinch that spot in Week 16 if they win and the Seahawks lose.

Explore all the Packers’ playoff possibilities here.

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Bears (8-7)

A possible division title is long gone, but surprisingly the Bears control their own destiny in the N.F.C. Their final two regular-season games are against the Jaguars (1-13), who share the worst record in the league, and the Packers (11-3). If the Bears win both games, they’ll clinch a spot in the postseason.

Explore all the Bears’ playoff possibilities here.

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NFC South

Saints ✓ (11-4)

The Saints (11-4) have clinched the N.F.C. South. They will most likely enter the playoffs as a No. 2 seed, but there are ways they can get the No. 1 seed if the Packers miss a step.

Explore all the Saints’ playoff possibilities here.

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Buccaneers ✓ (10-5)

The Buccaneers crushed the Lions 47-7 on Saturday, clinching a wild-card spot. If they win again in Week 17, they’ll be guaranteed the No. 5 seed and a playoff game against the winner of the lowly N.F.C. East.

Explore all the Buccaneers’ playoff possibilities here.

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NFC West

Seahawks ✓ (11-4)

The Seahawks lead the N.F.C. West; a win against the Rams in Week 16 would clinch the division. They could even finish with the No. 1 seed. Not likely, but possible. The easiest way would be if the Seahawks finished 12-4 and the Packers and Saints did some losing.

Explore all the Seahawks’ playoff possibilities here.

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Rams (9-6)

The Rams face many possibilities. A win in Week 16 would clinch a playoff berth.

It’s still possible for the Rams to win the N.F.C. West, a division that may have three playoff teams. They’ll do it if they win their remaining games — both against divisional opponents. They can also get the No. 1 seed, though it is not likely.

They could miss the playoffs, too. It’s not likely, but if the Rams fell to 9-7 and got some bad luck, it could happen.

Explore all the Rams’ playoff possibilities here.

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Cardinals (8-7)

The Cardinals now represent the last spot in the N.F.C. playoffs, but they will likely need to win on the road against the Rams (9-5) next week to hang on to it. A loss coupled with a Bears (7-7) win in either of Chicago’s final two games would deny the Cardinals a playoff berth.

Explore all the Cardinals’ playoff possibilities here.

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2020 N.F.L. Playoff Picture: Mapping the Paths That Remain for Each Team (Published 2020) (2024)
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